You’ve likely seen the headlines: “Recession fears are growing,” “Home prices could plummet,” and similar narratives. It’s enough to give any homeowner or buyer pause. But as someone with over 23 years of experience in mortgage and real estate, I can tell you—those headlines often stir up fear, not facts.

Let’s take a closer look at what really happens to home values when the economy slows down.

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What the History of U.S. Recessions Tells Us About Housing

There’s a common misconception that home values fall every time the U.S. economy hits a rough patch. But that simply isn’t backed by historical data.

This chart shows how home values have performed during every major U.S. recession over the past 50+ years:

Out of seven major recessions since 1973:

• Home values increased during five of them.
• They held steady or saw only modest declines in one.
• The only significant drop occurred during the Great Recession (2007–2009), which was driven by risky lending and unsustainable mortgage products—not the recession itself.

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Why Home Prices Often Stay Strong in a Downturn

So, what keeps housing from collapsing every time the economy struggles?

1. Lower Mortgage Rates
When the economy slows, the Federal Reserve typically cuts interest rates. This causes mortgage rates to fall, giving more buyers access to affordable financing and stimulating demand.

2. Tight Inventory
During uncertain times, fewer homeowners list their properties. That reduction in supply helps stabilize prices, even when demand slows.

3. Housing is Essential
People continue to buy homes during recessions because life doesn’t pause. Whether it’s marriage, growing families, relocation, or downsizing—housing needs persist regardless of the economic cycle.

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What About Unemployment?

Unemployment often does rise during recessions, and that can reduce the pool of qualified buyers. However, the sharp drop in interest rates typically expands buying power for many households, and that often offsets the loss in demand caused by job losses.

In markets like Dallas-Fort Worth—where population growth and job relocation remain strong—housing often proves to be one of the most resilient sectors.

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What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

If you’re sitting on the fence, waiting for home prices to fall dramatically, you might be waiting longer than you think.

History shows us that recessions do not automatically lead to a drop in home values. In fact, they often create opportunities—especially for buyers—thanks to lower interest rates and reduced competition.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply want expert guidance in today’s market, I’m here to help. No hype. Just straight answers and proven experience to guide you through.

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Ready to Take the Next Step?

Let’s build a smart plan to help you move forward, no matter what the market is doing.