This month, mortgage rates eased to around 6.127% for conventional loans and 5.75% for FHA and VA programs. That’s welcome news for buyers who have been watching rates climb for the past two years.

But here’s the catch: just because the Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds rate doesn’t mean mortgage rates will keep falling. In fact, the opposite could happen.

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Why Rates Could Bounce Back Up

• Inflation is rising again. Mortgage rates track inflation closely, and recent data shows prices heating up. If inflation stays sticky, lenders demand higher yields.
• Job losses are increasing. A weakening labor market creates economic uncertainty. That often drives volatility in mortgage-backed securities, which directly affects rates.
• The Fed’s impact is limited. The Fed controls short-term rates, not mortgage rates. While cuts can influence markets, mortgage rates respond more to inflation and bond demand.

In short: while rates are better today, there’s no guarantee they’ll keep drifting lower, in fact, they have already started to increase.

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The Cost of Waiting in Dallas

Let’s look at the risk of holding off:

• Home prices keep climbing. North Texas remains one of the strongest housing markets in the country thanks to population growth and corporate relocations. Waiting for a lower rate could mean paying more for the same home.
• Seller incentives may disappear. Right now, many sellers are offering closing cost credits and rate buydowns to attract buyers. When demand heats back up, those concessions will dry up.
• Refinancing remains an option. You can always refinance later if rates move lower, but you can’t lock in today’s home prices once they’ve gone up.

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A Quick Example

• Today: $400,000 home at 6.327% = approx. $2,478/month (P&I).
• Wait 6 months: Home rises 4% to $416,000, rates tick back up to 6.75% = $2,704/month.
  That’s a difference of $226/month and $16,000 more on the purchase price.

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Why Buying Now Makes Sense

• Rates are already lower than last quarter.
• Sellers are more negotiable in the fall market.
• You build equity sooner — every payment is one step closer to owning more of your home.

The real opportunity is in acting before everyone else jumps back in.

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Bottom Line

Rates dipped, but uncertainty remains. With inflation rising and job losses mounting, mortgage rates could just as easily swing back up as they could fall further.

Buying now in Dallas means you lock in today’s lower rates and home prices, take advantage of seller incentives, and keep the option to refinance later.

If you’re waiting for the “perfect” rate, you may end up paying more for the same home. Let’s run the numbers together so you can make the move with confidence.